So I expected Tom Watson to have four or five holes that derailed his run. I just didn't expect it to be 18 and the four playoff holes to follow. It was sad watching it on TV because everyone there except for Mrs. Cink was rooting for Watson, and he caved in like no other. What is it about the British Open that destroys people? Van de Velde and Mickelson have both felt the heartache that Watson will no doubt feel for the near future. While he had 5 Open wins already, this is one that got away.
Also, is anyone else tiring of baseball? I always say it won't be me, but it happens. They call it the dog days of summer for a reason. Teams are close enough that you are still in contention, but so much baseball is to be played that it is hard to get into every game. I have been watching the Astros, streaking as of late, and they look like they might make a miracle run again this season. Drayton has to understand how much better this team might be with another arm in the rotation. Perhaps he will see the light and trade Tejada before the break. Because, facing the facts, even if this team makes a run, they have much less firepower than Milwauke and Chicago and maybe even St. Louis. Food for thought...
Finally, it is getting close to football season, both NFL and college. Nothing is better than a full Saturday slate of college games followed by a full Sunday. I can't wait.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Midseason Awards
NL MVP: Albert Pujols, Cardinals
This one is a no-brainer for me, especially looking at how the Cardinals, a team suspected of struggling in the division, are leading the Brewers and Cubs in a tight division race. He set a personal best for homers before the break (32), and leads the NL in homers, RBIs (87) and is fourth in average (.332). Not bad for a guy that teams avoid like the Plague when pitching.
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Giants
He is following his first Cy Young campaign with an equally amazing one. This time, though, the team is following. Last year, he won on a team that struggled to do much of anything. This year, the resurgent Giants are scoring runs and helping the pitching. Not that Lincecum needs it. His 10 wins and 2.33 ERA are second in the NL in both categories, and he leads the league with 149 strikeouts. This kid is the real deal, and he has the Giants in contention for the playoffs.
NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Rockies
This was a close one between Tracy and Joe Torre, but Tracy has done more with less since an 18-28 start by the team. Since then, the team is 29-13, getting back to within two games of the wild card leading Giants. He has pushed the right buttons and turned players that were considered declining into stars again. Jason Marquis, an offseason acquisition from the Cubs, leads the NL with 11 wins. Todd Helton, the career Rockie, is hitting .319 with 10 homers and 57 RBIs. And all this after trading away All-Stars Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. Not too shabby...
NL Surprise: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are coming off a 72-90 campaign with there eyes on a rebuilding process. Instead, they made some shrewd moves and find themselves leading the wild card in the NL. The team had some veteran presence in Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina, but added Edgar Renteria and Randy Johnson to the mix. Both have led the resurgence, aided by Pablo Sandoval, Travis Ishikawa, and other younger players. The pitching, a strength in the preseason, has held serve, with Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnson, and others pitching lights out. The offense, the big question mark, has been inspired. This team is no mirage, but no one expected these results.
NL Bust: Chicago Cubs
In a toss up with the Mets, the Cubs win because of the promise they showed last year before falling flat. They sent off productive players (such as Jason Marquis), only to land players that have been more headache than help. Milton Bradley has not provided the lefty power they craved. Moreover, no player is hitting over .300, with Ryan Theriot leading those with enough at bats with a .299 average. Injuries have been an issue, and the team has struggled to score runs with the pitching allowing only 353, third in the NL. Unless that stagnant offense finds a spark, it will only continue the countdown of The Curse.
AL MVP: Derek Jeter, Yankees
While the season started slow in New York, everyone panicked that the big new signings where more bust and not boom. In the tumult, fingers were waving all around the room, at Mark Texeira, AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia, and the poster child for steroids, Alex Rodriguez. But none fell on The Captain, and he plodded through, providing good defense to go with a solid bat. He is hitting .321, has 10 homer, and stolen 17 bases. More than that, he was able to keep everyone on track and help carry the team early, giving them the chance to shoot out and grab the AL wild card at the break. He helped Joe Girardi get out of the hot seat in two weeks and should help end the playoff drought soon enough.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Royals
Some thinking a winning team is a component, but I disagree. This kid was lights out early on, and has remained so after a short three start bump. He leads the AL in ERA (2.12), is second in wins (10), and third in strikeouts (129), all for a team 14 games under .500. He has won more than a quarter of the teams games, and must pitch brilliantly to get those numbers. His season is similar to Lincecum's year last season, and he shows no signs of letting up.
AL Manager of the Year: Don Wakamatsu
This was another close one, but he has turned a team that was terrible last year into one that is in the wild card hunt in the strong AL. The team was turned over in the offseason, seeing Raul Ibanez, JJ Putz, and Jeremy Reed leave via free agency or trade. The team rebuilt, mixing veterans with prospects, including Ken Griffey Jr. and Russell Branyan. After getting the pieces in place, Wakamatsu made them all work in unison. Similar to Tracy, he has pushed the right buttons to get this team to start winning again.
AL Surprise: Texas Rangers pitching
Every year, the Rangers score lots of runs. And every year, they give up just as many. But this year, the pitching has been as advertised, and the team is showing that it can compete. Kevin Millwood bought into the mantra to pitch to contact and pitch for innings. He leads the AL in innings pitched, and has let one of the best defenses in the league cover his back. Adding Elvis Andrus to short, allowing an already adequate shortstop-turned-third baseman Mike Young to shift over. Add in a solid outfield corps, and this staff was ready. It doesn't hurt to get good performances from players no one had heard of (Scott Feldman [8-2, 3.73 ERA]) or thought were long gone (Vincente Padilla [7-4, 4.53 ERA]). With the hitting continuing to mash, and the pitchers knowing how to throw it, the Rangers are looking like contenders for the September push.
AL Bust: Cleveland Indians
Narrowly edging out Oakland, which landed one of the best hitters available only to beat the Indians in the AL, the Indians have taken it on the chin this year. Reigning AL Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee started out looking like a AAA pitcher, and the scrap heap provided there only other starter (Carl Pavano). Meanwhile, offensive stalwarts Travis Hafner (injured), Grady Sizemore (.238), and Jhonny Peralta (.257) have not been able to get the offense going. The team. readying for a breakout performance following a supposed lull last year, might be looking to bust this apart and start again sooner rather than later.
This one is a no-brainer for me, especially looking at how the Cardinals, a team suspected of struggling in the division, are leading the Brewers and Cubs in a tight division race. He set a personal best for homers before the break (32), and leads the NL in homers, RBIs (87) and is fourth in average (.332). Not bad for a guy that teams avoid like the Plague when pitching.
NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, Giants
He is following his first Cy Young campaign with an equally amazing one. This time, though, the team is following. Last year, he won on a team that struggled to do much of anything. This year, the resurgent Giants are scoring runs and helping the pitching. Not that Lincecum needs it. His 10 wins and 2.33 ERA are second in the NL in both categories, and he leads the league with 149 strikeouts. This kid is the real deal, and he has the Giants in contention for the playoffs.
NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, Rockies
This was a close one between Tracy and Joe Torre, but Tracy has done more with less since an 18-28 start by the team. Since then, the team is 29-13, getting back to within two games of the wild card leading Giants. He has pushed the right buttons and turned players that were considered declining into stars again. Jason Marquis, an offseason acquisition from the Cubs, leads the NL with 11 wins. Todd Helton, the career Rockie, is hitting .319 with 10 homers and 57 RBIs. And all this after trading away All-Stars Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes. Not too shabby...
NL Surprise: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are coming off a 72-90 campaign with there eyes on a rebuilding process. Instead, they made some shrewd moves and find themselves leading the wild card in the NL. The team had some veteran presence in Aaron Rowand and Bengie Molina, but added Edgar Renteria and Randy Johnson to the mix. Both have led the resurgence, aided by Pablo Sandoval, Travis Ishikawa, and other younger players. The pitching, a strength in the preseason, has held serve, with Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnson, and others pitching lights out. The offense, the big question mark, has been inspired. This team is no mirage, but no one expected these results.
NL Bust: Chicago Cubs
In a toss up with the Mets, the Cubs win because of the promise they showed last year before falling flat. They sent off productive players (such as Jason Marquis), only to land players that have been more headache than help. Milton Bradley has not provided the lefty power they craved. Moreover, no player is hitting over .300, with Ryan Theriot leading those with enough at bats with a .299 average. Injuries have been an issue, and the team has struggled to score runs with the pitching allowing only 353, third in the NL. Unless that stagnant offense finds a spark, it will only continue the countdown of The Curse.
AL MVP: Derek Jeter, Yankees
While the season started slow in New York, everyone panicked that the big new signings where more bust and not boom. In the tumult, fingers were waving all around the room, at Mark Texeira, AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia, and the poster child for steroids, Alex Rodriguez. But none fell on The Captain, and he plodded through, providing good defense to go with a solid bat. He is hitting .321, has 10 homer, and stolen 17 bases. More than that, he was able to keep everyone on track and help carry the team early, giving them the chance to shoot out and grab the AL wild card at the break. He helped Joe Girardi get out of the hot seat in two weeks and should help end the playoff drought soon enough.
AL Cy Young: Zack Greinke, Royals
Some thinking a winning team is a component, but I disagree. This kid was lights out early on, and has remained so after a short three start bump. He leads the AL in ERA (2.12), is second in wins (10), and third in strikeouts (129), all for a team 14 games under .500. He has won more than a quarter of the teams games, and must pitch brilliantly to get those numbers. His season is similar to Lincecum's year last season, and he shows no signs of letting up.
AL Manager of the Year: Don Wakamatsu
This was another close one, but he has turned a team that was terrible last year into one that is in the wild card hunt in the strong AL. The team was turned over in the offseason, seeing Raul Ibanez, JJ Putz, and Jeremy Reed leave via free agency or trade. The team rebuilt, mixing veterans with prospects, including Ken Griffey Jr. and Russell Branyan. After getting the pieces in place, Wakamatsu made them all work in unison. Similar to Tracy, he has pushed the right buttons to get this team to start winning again.
AL Surprise: Texas Rangers pitching
Every year, the Rangers score lots of runs. And every year, they give up just as many. But this year, the pitching has been as advertised, and the team is showing that it can compete. Kevin Millwood bought into the mantra to pitch to contact and pitch for innings. He leads the AL in innings pitched, and has let one of the best defenses in the league cover his back. Adding Elvis Andrus to short, allowing an already adequate shortstop-turned-third baseman Mike Young to shift over. Add in a solid outfield corps, and this staff was ready. It doesn't hurt to get good performances from players no one had heard of (Scott Feldman [8-2, 3.73 ERA]) or thought were long gone (Vincente Padilla [7-4, 4.53 ERA]). With the hitting continuing to mash, and the pitchers knowing how to throw it, the Rangers are looking like contenders for the September push.
AL Bust: Cleveland Indians
Narrowly edging out Oakland, which landed one of the best hitters available only to beat the Indians in the AL, the Indians have taken it on the chin this year. Reigning AL Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee started out looking like a AAA pitcher, and the scrap heap provided there only other starter (Carl Pavano). Meanwhile, offensive stalwarts Travis Hafner (injured), Grady Sizemore (.238), and Jhonny Peralta (.257) have not been able to get the offense going. The team. readying for a breakout performance following a supposed lull last year, might be looking to bust this apart and start again sooner rather than later.
July 16
To try to get to a daily routine, I am going to post stuff about that day or day before, and then have special posts every now and then.
Yesterday might be the most boring sports day in the summer, as baseball is on hiatus. But we have the All-Star game recap to think about plus other "fringe" sports. The Game was great. It was fast and fairly exciting. Some great catches (Werth and Crawford) and some decent pitching saw the AL win for the 13th freaking time in a row! Really!?! It just shows that the DH has turned the AL into an offensive juggernaut. I know those were position players, but the DH makes it a more offense-driven league. This is starting to look like the Western Conference versus the Eastern Conference from top to bottom. Top can compete (Dodgers, Rockies, etc.) but the bottom is way away. Perhaps it will swing in time, but for now, I predict an AL lock on home field in the World Series.
Also, the British Open started way too early this morning to be considered today, so I'll count it. Tom Watson (yes, that Tom Watson) is a shot back and contending for his 6th British Open. The man is on the Senior Tour, and showed those boys a thing or two. Just goes to show, at the British, where the rough is really rough and the winds are always killer, low ball hitters that don't make mistakes are golden. He played today to avoid mistakes and make birdies where he could. That is the key. But all that said, Watson likes to collapse in a string of holes somewhere over the four days. I expect nothing less this time too.
Finally, Jeremy Mayfield tested positive again for a banned substance. Now, I am a Nascar fan. But obviously this guy is giving the smarter drivers a bad name. Catch me once, shame on me. Catch me twice, I am a blithering idiot. See you later, Jeremy. Next time, call Manny Ramirez to get advice on how to handle the situation. The fans still love him, even if he cheated the game and his team. Now Mayfield will have the scarlet letter on him throughout the rest of his career, which I think is officially over. No team without a driver or sponsor, which is what he will have sooner rather than later now.
Yesterday might be the most boring sports day in the summer, as baseball is on hiatus. But we have the All-Star game recap to think about plus other "fringe" sports. The Game was great. It was fast and fairly exciting. Some great catches (Werth and Crawford) and some decent pitching saw the AL win for the 13th freaking time in a row! Really!?! It just shows that the DH has turned the AL into an offensive juggernaut. I know those were position players, but the DH makes it a more offense-driven league. This is starting to look like the Western Conference versus the Eastern Conference from top to bottom. Top can compete (Dodgers, Rockies, etc.) but the bottom is way away. Perhaps it will swing in time, but for now, I predict an AL lock on home field in the World Series.
Also, the British Open started way too early this morning to be considered today, so I'll count it. Tom Watson (yes, that Tom Watson) is a shot back and contending for his 6th British Open. The man is on the Senior Tour, and showed those boys a thing or two. Just goes to show, at the British, where the rough is really rough and the winds are always killer, low ball hitters that don't make mistakes are golden. He played today to avoid mistakes and make birdies where he could. That is the key. But all that said, Watson likes to collapse in a string of holes somewhere over the four days. I expect nothing less this time too.
Finally, Jeremy Mayfield tested positive again for a banned substance. Now, I am a Nascar fan. But obviously this guy is giving the smarter drivers a bad name. Catch me once, shame on me. Catch me twice, I am a blithering idiot. See you later, Jeremy. Next time, call Manny Ramirez to get advice on how to handle the situation. The fans still love him, even if he cheated the game and his team. Now Mayfield will have the scarlet letter on him throughout the rest of his career, which I think is officially over. No team without a driver or sponsor, which is what he will have sooner rather than later now.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Eastern Conference Grades
Toronto Raptors: A (9- DeMar DeRozan)
I usually don't like the one player draft, but I can make an exception. This pick was fabulous! The team has a good lineup already (Bosh, Bargnani, Calderon) but needed a flashy scorer to fill it out. Enter DeRozan. He is not polished yet, and needs some time to reach his potential. But watch out when he does. He has the chance to be a great playmaker from a combo spot in the NBA.
Atlanta Hawks: A- (19- Jeff Teague [PG], 49- Sergiy Gladyr [SG])
The Mike Bibby era is over, but there are ample replacements now. Jamal Crawford will get his chance to finally play in the playoffs, but Jeff Teague was a guard that I thought was as good, if not better than, Rubio, Flynn, or Jennings. He has amazing quickness, and you can barely keep him out of the paint. Watch for floating alley-oops to Josh Smith in the near future. Team his slashing with Smiths and Joe Johnson's shooting, and this is a tough team. Gladyr is a project, but looks to be a good Euro prospect. Give him a few years and he should be on the bench in Atlanta.
Philadelphia 76ers: A- (17- Jrue Holiday [PG])
Another one pick draft that I love. Holiday had fallen because of some shoulder injury concerns, which keeps this out of an A grade. But, like Danny Grainger some time back, he goes 17th and is ready to show the world he can make it. The 76ers could not have been happier how this played out. Andre Miller is no longer a huge priority, and the 76ers have a PG to team with Iguodala and Brand to make a run this year, and the PG for the future too.
Charlotte Bobcats: B+ (12- Gerald Henderson [SG], 40- Derrick Brown [PF])
This was a good draft from a team that has been missing that for some time. Henderson gets to watch his clone, Raja Bell, and learn how to make it in the NBA as a slashing defender with not a lot of shooting ability. That said, there are a lot of worse things to become (like Adam Morrison). And Brown has a big future, assuming he develops into the player he can be. As a future grab, he bumps the score up because of his ability to contribute now.
Detroit Pistons: B+ (15- Austin Daye [SF], 35- DaJuan Summers [SF], 39- Jonas Jerebko [SF])
Three wings would usually warrant a lower grade, but these are three different styles. Daye is a 6'11" three point specialist that will back up Tayshaun Prince but needs to add bulk to move to PF. Summers, considered at the 15th pick, is a bigger player with a developed game that could play PF in a pinch. Jerebko is an asset, left in Europe to develop into a trade piece later or a contributor. Three players that play the same position that contribute in completely different ways.
New Jersey Nets: B+ (11- Terrence Williams [SG])
Despite one pick, I think the Nets did a lot to help the future of the team. After moving Vince Carter, this team had a lot of questions with no true direction. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Brook Lopez will be fixtures, and now Williams should join that group. A top 5 athlete, he is tall for a guard (6'6") and can flat out jump. Look for him to become a terror on defenses because he is too big for a SG and too fast for a SF or PF.
Cleveland Cavaliers: B (30- Christian Eyenga [SF], 46- Danny Green [SF], 57- Emir Preldzic [SF])
The Cavs turned an average drafty one notch higher by getting Danny Green so far down. Green is the kind of player that can help the Cavs now, as opposed to the other two. Both Eyenga and Preldzic need two or three years of international seasoning. But Green is a solid passer and shooter, and can be a great rotation guy for the Cavs. To find that in the middle of the second round is a good thing. There score would have been lower after having taken Eyenga when DeJuan Blair and Sam Young, both immediate contributors, were on the board.
Indiana Pacers: B (13- Tyler Hansborough [PF], 52- A.J. Price [PG])
This is the definition of a draft designed to build a team that can compete in the diluted Eastern Conference. Needing to get a physical presence, the Pacers grabbed Hansborough, perhaps the player with the best projected game in the draft. Not a star, he will be a workhorse in the paint. I think of Jeff Foster with an offensive game. Next, they wanted a point early, but grabbing Price in the second round is insurance. He can be a solid backup point guard, but won't wow anyone. He can be a good third guard option to season to replace Jarrett Jack, assuming he re-signs.
Miami Heat: B- (42- Patrick Beverly [PG], 60- Robert Dozier [SF])
The Heat arrived without a first round pick (thanks Pat Riley; was Ricky Davis worth it). But they had their eye on Beverly, an interesting player that played in Ukraine last year after leaving school. Now he is going to come in as a rotation player, being a solid option off the bench for a team of playmakers. Dozier has the talent to be one of those playmakers, but has never lived up to it. He'll have a shot, not in the NBA, but somewhere, to show he has the tools to match his talent.
Milwaukee Bucks: B- (10- Brandon Jennings, 41- Jodie Meeks [SG])
I give the Bucks credit for standing tough and getting the guy they wanted in their slot. But I think Jennings will be a huge disappointment in the league. A guy that can't get into college has the intelligence to manage the game in the NBA? I don't know. If he does manage to make it, he could be the best in the draft. Meeks is a big-time scorer that lacks athleticism. I question his ability to create his own shot, which on the Bucks, a player must do without a slashing type player now that Richard Jefferson is gone.
New York Knicks: B- (8- Jordan Hill [PF], 29- Toney Douglas [SG])
The Knicks went into the draft hoping and praying to get Stephen Curry. When he left the board right before them, it became apparent that Hill was their only choice. Don't get me wrong; I think Hill will be a terrific contributor in the NBA. But they desperately needed a passing point, and saw Rubio, Flynn, and Curry leave all three picks in front of them. Now the Knicks are stacked in the post (Hill, David Lee, Milicic) with still no guard options. This might indicate that the team is leaning towards moving David Lee to clear payroll for a run at LeBron.
Boston Celtics: C+ (58- Lester Hudson [SG])
The Celtics get slightly below average because the player is a long shot from coming through. But what can you expect from the second to last pick in the draft. Hudson is out of Tennessee-Martin, a tiny school, and has had no real competition. He can flat out ball, but he is also old (24). He might be a replacement for Eddie House down the road, but he has a lot of developing to do, something that is hard for a 24 year old.
Chicago Bulls: C+ (16- James Johnson [PF], 26- Taj Gibson [PF])
The Bulls signaled their intention to place Tyrus Thomas on the trading block by picking Johnson. He is almost the same player, with the ability to guard a SF or PF. He is still a work in process, but has moments of brilliance, much like Thomas. I think he is the replacement for him, which may even be this season. But how many lanky post players can one team have? Never too many, according to the Bulls, who added to the glut with Gibson. A project player, I think they already had enough of the. A low post scorer or replacement for a most-likely-departing Ben Gordon would have been better.
Orlando Magic: INC (no picks)
The Magic went in without a pick and left without a pick. The team is pretty content after making the Finals, losing Turkoglu and Lee in the offseason. Turkoglu was a huge blow, but Vince Carter should help ease their pain. Look for them to move Rafer Alston at some point to get another wing defender to pair with Rashard Lewis.
Washington Wizards: INC (no picks)
Unlike the Magic, the Wizards went in with a pick but traded it to Houston for cash. This is a decent move, considering they moved the 5th overall pick for two solid veterans (Mike Miller and Randy Foye). With them in the fold, the Wizards become a viable team again, with Miller adding shooting to Arenas slashing, and Foye manning the point if Arenas needs to move over. Teamed with Jamison, this team looks like a playoff team in the East.
I usually don't like the one player draft, but I can make an exception. This pick was fabulous! The team has a good lineup already (Bosh, Bargnani, Calderon) but needed a flashy scorer to fill it out. Enter DeRozan. He is not polished yet, and needs some time to reach his potential. But watch out when he does. He has the chance to be a great playmaker from a combo spot in the NBA.
Atlanta Hawks: A- (19- Jeff Teague [PG], 49- Sergiy Gladyr [SG])
The Mike Bibby era is over, but there are ample replacements now. Jamal Crawford will get his chance to finally play in the playoffs, but Jeff Teague was a guard that I thought was as good, if not better than, Rubio, Flynn, or Jennings. He has amazing quickness, and you can barely keep him out of the paint. Watch for floating alley-oops to Josh Smith in the near future. Team his slashing with Smiths and Joe Johnson's shooting, and this is a tough team. Gladyr is a project, but looks to be a good Euro prospect. Give him a few years and he should be on the bench in Atlanta.
Philadelphia 76ers: A- (17- Jrue Holiday [PG])
Another one pick draft that I love. Holiday had fallen because of some shoulder injury concerns, which keeps this out of an A grade. But, like Danny Grainger some time back, he goes 17th and is ready to show the world he can make it. The 76ers could not have been happier how this played out. Andre Miller is no longer a huge priority, and the 76ers have a PG to team with Iguodala and Brand to make a run this year, and the PG for the future too.
Charlotte Bobcats: B+ (12- Gerald Henderson [SG], 40- Derrick Brown [PF])
This was a good draft from a team that has been missing that for some time. Henderson gets to watch his clone, Raja Bell, and learn how to make it in the NBA as a slashing defender with not a lot of shooting ability. That said, there are a lot of worse things to become (like Adam Morrison). And Brown has a big future, assuming he develops into the player he can be. As a future grab, he bumps the score up because of his ability to contribute now.
Detroit Pistons: B+ (15- Austin Daye [SF], 35- DaJuan Summers [SF], 39- Jonas Jerebko [SF])
Three wings would usually warrant a lower grade, but these are three different styles. Daye is a 6'11" three point specialist that will back up Tayshaun Prince but needs to add bulk to move to PF. Summers, considered at the 15th pick, is a bigger player with a developed game that could play PF in a pinch. Jerebko is an asset, left in Europe to develop into a trade piece later or a contributor. Three players that play the same position that contribute in completely different ways.
New Jersey Nets: B+ (11- Terrence Williams [SG])
Despite one pick, I think the Nets did a lot to help the future of the team. After moving Vince Carter, this team had a lot of questions with no true direction. Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Brook Lopez will be fixtures, and now Williams should join that group. A top 5 athlete, he is tall for a guard (6'6") and can flat out jump. Look for him to become a terror on defenses because he is too big for a SG and too fast for a SF or PF.
Cleveland Cavaliers: B (30- Christian Eyenga [SF], 46- Danny Green [SF], 57- Emir Preldzic [SF])
The Cavs turned an average drafty one notch higher by getting Danny Green so far down. Green is the kind of player that can help the Cavs now, as opposed to the other two. Both Eyenga and Preldzic need two or three years of international seasoning. But Green is a solid passer and shooter, and can be a great rotation guy for the Cavs. To find that in the middle of the second round is a good thing. There score would have been lower after having taken Eyenga when DeJuan Blair and Sam Young, both immediate contributors, were on the board.
Indiana Pacers: B (13- Tyler Hansborough [PF], 52- A.J. Price [PG])
This is the definition of a draft designed to build a team that can compete in the diluted Eastern Conference. Needing to get a physical presence, the Pacers grabbed Hansborough, perhaps the player with the best projected game in the draft. Not a star, he will be a workhorse in the paint. I think of Jeff Foster with an offensive game. Next, they wanted a point early, but grabbing Price in the second round is insurance. He can be a solid backup point guard, but won't wow anyone. He can be a good third guard option to season to replace Jarrett Jack, assuming he re-signs.
Miami Heat: B- (42- Patrick Beverly [PG], 60- Robert Dozier [SF])
The Heat arrived without a first round pick (thanks Pat Riley; was Ricky Davis worth it). But they had their eye on Beverly, an interesting player that played in Ukraine last year after leaving school. Now he is going to come in as a rotation player, being a solid option off the bench for a team of playmakers. Dozier has the talent to be one of those playmakers, but has never lived up to it. He'll have a shot, not in the NBA, but somewhere, to show he has the tools to match his talent.
Milwaukee Bucks: B- (10- Brandon Jennings, 41- Jodie Meeks [SG])
I give the Bucks credit for standing tough and getting the guy they wanted in their slot. But I think Jennings will be a huge disappointment in the league. A guy that can't get into college has the intelligence to manage the game in the NBA? I don't know. If he does manage to make it, he could be the best in the draft. Meeks is a big-time scorer that lacks athleticism. I question his ability to create his own shot, which on the Bucks, a player must do without a slashing type player now that Richard Jefferson is gone.
New York Knicks: B- (8- Jordan Hill [PF], 29- Toney Douglas [SG])
The Knicks went into the draft hoping and praying to get Stephen Curry. When he left the board right before them, it became apparent that Hill was their only choice. Don't get me wrong; I think Hill will be a terrific contributor in the NBA. But they desperately needed a passing point, and saw Rubio, Flynn, and Curry leave all three picks in front of them. Now the Knicks are stacked in the post (Hill, David Lee, Milicic) with still no guard options. This might indicate that the team is leaning towards moving David Lee to clear payroll for a run at LeBron.
Boston Celtics: C+ (58- Lester Hudson [SG])
The Celtics get slightly below average because the player is a long shot from coming through. But what can you expect from the second to last pick in the draft. Hudson is out of Tennessee-Martin, a tiny school, and has had no real competition. He can flat out ball, but he is also old (24). He might be a replacement for Eddie House down the road, but he has a lot of developing to do, something that is hard for a 24 year old.
Chicago Bulls: C+ (16- James Johnson [PF], 26- Taj Gibson [PF])
The Bulls signaled their intention to place Tyrus Thomas on the trading block by picking Johnson. He is almost the same player, with the ability to guard a SF or PF. He is still a work in process, but has moments of brilliance, much like Thomas. I think he is the replacement for him, which may even be this season. But how many lanky post players can one team have? Never too many, according to the Bulls, who added to the glut with Gibson. A project player, I think they already had enough of the. A low post scorer or replacement for a most-likely-departing Ben Gordon would have been better.
Orlando Magic: INC (no picks)
The Magic went in without a pick and left without a pick. The team is pretty content after making the Finals, losing Turkoglu and Lee in the offseason. Turkoglu was a huge blow, but Vince Carter should help ease their pain. Look for them to move Rafer Alston at some point to get another wing defender to pair with Rashard Lewis.
Washington Wizards: INC (no picks)
Unlike the Magic, the Wizards went in with a pick but traded it to Houston for cash. This is a decent move, considering they moved the 5th overall pick for two solid veterans (Mike Miller and Randy Foye). With them in the fold, the Wizards become a viable team again, with Miller adding shooting to Arenas slashing, and Foye manning the point if Arenas needs to move over. Teamed with Jamison, this team looks like a playoff team in the East.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Western Conference Draft Grades
San Antonio Spurs: A+ (37- DeJuan Blair [PF], 51- Jack McClinton [PG], 53- Nando de Colo [PG])
An A+ for the draft, but getting Richard Jefferson makes the week an A++. Blair was a tremendous get considering his potential, and he has a great chance to be one of the best from this draft. McClinton gives the Spurs a great shooter off the bench, ready to grab and pop the kick outs from the post. de Colo is one of the premier guards in Europe, and like his predecessor Tony Parker, will be ready to come over in two years and play. All around a great draft.
Los Angeles Clippers: A (1- Blake Griffin [PF])
The Clippers told everyone from day 1 who they wanted, and they finally made it official. I think the Clippers might be coming out of the cellar with a core of Griffin, Gordon, and Thornton. Add in the veteran presence of Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby, and you have the makings of a team that might contend.
Houston Rockets: A- (32- Jermaine Taylor [SG], 34 Sergio Llull [SG], 44- Chase Budinger [SF])
The Rockets receive a high grade for getting Budinger, a possible elite talent, so far down and getting three picks after starting with none. Taylor is a scoring machine that can be a great contributor off the bench. Budinger was a lottery pick two years ago, and has the athleticism and outside shot to really help the team. Llull is a long term project that will play overseas.
Minnesota Timberwolves: A- (5- Ricky Rubio [PG], 6- Jonny Flynn [PG], 28- Wayne Ellington [SG], 47- Henk Norel [PF])
The gurus are not hyped about this draft but I am. The Wolves are getting young, and they are doing it with solid players. Rubio is complaining about time, but the Wolves are set to finds their point guard through a competition. Flynn and Rubio get to settle it on the court. Ellington will give them a cheaper version of Mike Miller as a shooter from the outside, while the points will replace the slashing. Plus, they turned excess picks (#14) into future firsts. Most a perplexed, but I think it was a great move and a great idea in getting the franchise point guard.
Denver Nuggets: B+ (14- Ty Lawson [PG])
The Nuggets went for quality over quantity, getting one of the only holes filled on their roster. Chauncey needed a backup, and in comes Lawson, a player that will be ready to take over from him in two or three years. With only one major free agent leaving (Linas Kleiza), the Nuggets got a major piece in another Western Conference run.
Phoenix Suns: B+ (14- Earl Clark [PF], 48- Taylor Griffin [SF])
The Suns are clearly in rebuild mode, after sending Shaq to Cleveland and shopping Stoudemire. But the pick of Clark, a top 5 talent that lacks drive, is a great way to start. Griffin brings toughness, but I am not sure he has what it takes to play the wing. If they get some parts for Stoudemire (such as Biedrins, Curry, etc.) in a deal, this is a good start to piecing the team back together.
Sacramento Kings: B+ (4- Tyreke Evans [PG], 23- Omri Casspi [SF], 38- Jon Brockman [PF])
The Kings did a lot to get rid of the soft label they garnered after trading Artest. All 3 guys are bangers. Overall, I thought all were fairly safe picks to acquire good role players, although Casspi needs to develop some more. I love the Evans pick, and I think he will be a better pro than Rubio.
Utah Jazz: B+ (20- Eric Maynor [PG], 50- Goran Suton [C])
Everybody was wheeling and dealing on draft night, but the Jazz were the Jazz. They stayed put, didn't get excited, and got two good players for the team. I absolutely love the Maynor pick. Despite coming from a small school, I think he is one of the better players and maybe the most NBA-ready player available. And he gets to come in and backup Deron WIlliams, a low pressure situation that he can excel in. Suton is a project, but he showed he can play in college and should get a few years overseas before coming back.
Los Angeles Lakers: C- (59- Junior Elonu [PF])
I think the Lakers did themselves a disservice in the draft. They drafted two very good guards, but dealt them away. The idea was to clear cap space for Odom and Ariza. But in the long run, they have clearly auctioned off the future for right now. Toney Douglass (to the Knicks) was the kind of player to replace Derek Fisher. Patrick Beverly (to the Heat) was the kind of guy that could take minutes from Vujacic. Instead of preparing for the future, they are older (Fisher and Vujacic). Hope it pays off...
An A+ for the draft, but getting Richard Jefferson makes the week an A++. Blair was a tremendous get considering his potential, and he has a great chance to be one of the best from this draft. McClinton gives the Spurs a great shooter off the bench, ready to grab and pop the kick outs from the post. de Colo is one of the premier guards in Europe, and like his predecessor Tony Parker, will be ready to come over in two years and play. All around a great draft.
Los Angeles Clippers: A (1- Blake Griffin [PF])
The Clippers told everyone from day 1 who they wanted, and they finally made it official. I think the Clippers might be coming out of the cellar with a core of Griffin, Gordon, and Thornton. Add in the veteran presence of Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, and Marcus Camby, and you have the makings of a team that might contend.
Houston Rockets: A- (32- Jermaine Taylor [SG], 34 Sergio Llull [SG], 44- Chase Budinger [SF])
The Rockets receive a high grade for getting Budinger, a possible elite talent, so far down and getting three picks after starting with none. Taylor is a scoring machine that can be a great contributor off the bench. Budinger was a lottery pick two years ago, and has the athleticism and outside shot to really help the team. Llull is a long term project that will play overseas.
Minnesota Timberwolves: A- (5- Ricky Rubio [PG], 6- Jonny Flynn [PG], 28- Wayne Ellington [SG], 47- Henk Norel [PF])
The gurus are not hyped about this draft but I am. The Wolves are getting young, and they are doing it with solid players. Rubio is complaining about time, but the Wolves are set to finds their point guard through a competition. Flynn and Rubio get to settle it on the court. Ellington will give them a cheaper version of Mike Miller as a shooter from the outside, while the points will replace the slashing. Plus, they turned excess picks (#14) into future firsts. Most a perplexed, but I think it was a great move and a great idea in getting the franchise point guard.
Denver Nuggets: B+ (14- Ty Lawson [PG])
The Nuggets went for quality over quantity, getting one of the only holes filled on their roster. Chauncey needed a backup, and in comes Lawson, a player that will be ready to take over from him in two or three years. With only one major free agent leaving (Linas Kleiza), the Nuggets got a major piece in another Western Conference run.
Phoenix Suns: B+ (14- Earl Clark [PF], 48- Taylor Griffin [SF])
The Suns are clearly in rebuild mode, after sending Shaq to Cleveland and shopping Stoudemire. But the pick of Clark, a top 5 talent that lacks drive, is a great way to start. Griffin brings toughness, but I am not sure he has what it takes to play the wing. If they get some parts for Stoudemire (such as Biedrins, Curry, etc.) in a deal, this is a good start to piecing the team back together.
Sacramento Kings: B+ (4- Tyreke Evans [PG], 23- Omri Casspi [SF], 38- Jon Brockman [PF])
The Kings did a lot to get rid of the soft label they garnered after trading Artest. All 3 guys are bangers. Overall, I thought all were fairly safe picks to acquire good role players, although Casspi needs to develop some more. I love the Evans pick, and I think he will be a better pro than Rubio.
Utah Jazz: B+ (20- Eric Maynor [PG], 50- Goran Suton [C])
Everybody was wheeling and dealing on draft night, but the Jazz were the Jazz. They stayed put, didn't get excited, and got two good players for the team. I absolutely love the Maynor pick. Despite coming from a small school, I think he is one of the better players and maybe the most NBA-ready player available. And he gets to come in and backup Deron WIlliams, a low pressure situation that he can excel in. Suton is a project, but he showed he can play in college and should get a few years overseas before coming back.
Dallas Mavericks: B (25- Rodrigue Beaubois [PG], 45- Nick Calathes [PG], 56- Ahmad Nivins [PF])
The Mavericks surprised me by taking Beaubois, although they were said to love him, because they needed help now. Beaubois is at least three years away. They salvaged the grade by grabbing the second rounders. First, nabbing Calathes was a steal, although his immediate presence might not happen since he signed a contract to play in Greece. Second, Nivins is a forward that can give them solid bench minutes and provide some punch. Not a bad overall draft, and just above average.
Golden State Warriors: B (7- Stephen Curry [PG])
The Warriors grade may fluctuate, depending on where Curry plays. If he is dealt to Phoenix for Stoudemire, this grade goes higher as the Warriors become a major threat. If not, the disgruntled Monta Ellis and Curry might not work. Both should thrive in Don Nelson's system, but they are small and defensive liabilities (which never slowed Nelson down before). Even if he stays, the grade is a B because of his ability to shoot.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B (3- James Harden [SG], 24- B.J. Mullens [C], 54- Robert Vaden [SG])
The Thunder were in love with Rubio or Harden, but I think they took the better fit for the current team. Westbrook is a solid player, and teamed with Harden create a great complimentary backcourt to Durant, Green, and their big men. Mullens is raw, but he has the ability to become dominant and the best center in the draft. Vaden is a luxury pick. He might stick because of his stroke, but that is all. He is old and lacks athleticism, something that might shorten his career.
Memphis Grizzlies: B- (2- Hasheem Thabeet [C], 27- DeMarre Carroll [PF], 36- Sam Young [PF])
The Grizzlies backed into an average class, literally. Their best pick was Young, a versatile player that was hurt because he is 24. Carroll was the next best, as he provides another versatile big man that can even run the point. Thabeet was hugely overrated, and I feel may be the next Michael Olowakandi. His size and defensive presence will be felt, but that is all. And strong players negate his defense at times, something he will run into in the NBA. I think it was a waste to get a backup center with the second pick, especially with interested teams looking to move up for Rubio or Harden.
Portland Trailblazers: B- (22- Victor Claver [SF], 31- Jeff Pendergraph [PF], 33- Dante Cunningham [PF], 55- Patrick Mills [PG])
I give the Blazers an average grade because this is a draft for the future. They already have the pieces to win, and only Pendergraph would appear to have any run. Cunningham is too small and is a tweener, while Claver and Mills need to develop in Europe. The big miss will be Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, guys that made the draft for other teams.
New Orleans Hornets: C+ (21- Darren Collison [PG], 43- Marcus Thornton [SG])
The Hornets had a glaring need in the front court, but they spent both of their picks on backcourt players. Collison was weird, considering they have a better version already in Chris Paul. A change of tempo guard would have been great, but with Paul set to never leave the floor again, Collison can sit and watch. Thornton is a local boy that can shoot, even if he is small. Might be a rotation player this year.
Los Angeles Lakers: C- (59- Junior Elonu [PF])
I think the Lakers did themselves a disservice in the draft. They drafted two very good guards, but dealt them away. The idea was to clear cap space for Odom and Ariza. But in the long run, they have clearly auctioned off the future for right now. Toney Douglass (to the Knicks) was the kind of player to replace Derek Fisher. Patrick Beverly (to the Heat) was the kind of guy that could take minutes from Vujacic. Instead of preparing for the future, they are older (Fisher and Vujacic). Hope it pays off...
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Wimbledon
Most people are unaware that Wimbledon is going on right now across The Pond. Last year, the tournament had an epic finish. Roger Federer, owner of five straight silver cups, was ousted by the new upstart (Rafael Nadal), showing he wasn't solely a clay wonder. The buzz was ready for a rematch this year. But for those that were aware of this years tournament, that buzz quickly became back page news when Nadal withdrew from the tournament, citing the same creaky knees that limited his French Open play and ended his reign there.
NOT SO FAST! That being said, there is possibility that should pique the interest of sports fans. There is a good chance of seeing history on the Centre Court when it is all said and done. First off, Federer had been looking for history last year at this time. He was one Grand Slam title behind Pete Sampras, and everyone expected his 2008 Wimbledon title to be his tying title. But with Nadal stopping him in the finals, we had to wait. He reached that milestone this year, winning the French Open. Now, we get the opportunity to see his tie-breaking win. A win would likely place him as arguably the best tennis player of all time.
In addition, there is a chance that we will witness something that hasn't been seen since 1936: a Brit hoisting the silver cup. In 1936, Fred Perry lifted it on Centre Court, but not since then has a local had that honor. Players have had opportunities before. Tim Henman, widely considered one of the most successful open era British tennis players, reached the semifinals four times in five years, but never played on the last day. But this year, Andy Murray, a Scotsman, has a chance to change that. He has steadily improved his finishes (3rd round, 4th round, quarterfinals) since turning pro in 2006. In 2008, his quarterfinal defeat was to eventual champion Nadal. This year, he is seeded 3rd going into the tournament.
I will be tuning in. Who knows, perhaps you can recount how you saw history in the making?
NOT SO FAST! That being said, there is possibility that should pique the interest of sports fans. There is a good chance of seeing history on the Centre Court when it is all said and done. First off, Federer had been looking for history last year at this time. He was one Grand Slam title behind Pete Sampras, and everyone expected his 2008 Wimbledon title to be his tying title. But with Nadal stopping him in the finals, we had to wait. He reached that milestone this year, winning the French Open. Now, we get the opportunity to see his tie-breaking win. A win would likely place him as arguably the best tennis player of all time.
In addition, there is a chance that we will witness something that hasn't been seen since 1936: a Brit hoisting the silver cup. In 1936, Fred Perry lifted it on Centre Court, but not since then has a local had that honor. Players have had opportunities before. Tim Henman, widely considered one of the most successful open era British tennis players, reached the semifinals four times in five years, but never played on the last day. But this year, Andy Murray, a Scotsman, has a chance to change that. He has steadily improved his finishes (3rd round, 4th round, quarterfinals) since turning pro in 2006. In 2008, his quarterfinal defeat was to eventual champion Nadal. This year, he is seeded 3rd going into the tournament.
I will be tuning in. Who knows, perhaps you can recount how you saw history in the making?
Monday, June 15, 2009
NBA: Next Year
The Finals are finally over. The Kobes beat the horribly outgunned Magic (should it have been LeBron? We can all dream of that matchup in our sleep). Now, though, thoughts for the other teams, from top (Lakers) to bottom (Sacramento), get to discuss next year, free agency, and the draft.
I was surfing yesterday and found an interesting article on the free agents in 2009. It predicted the destination of free agents, including restricted free agents and those with early termination options. Here are a few of the big names, and the ones that involve the Rockets. Some of those moves make sense to me, but some seem a little far-fetched.
I was surfing yesterday and found an interesting article on the free agents in 2009. It predicted the destination of free agents, including restricted free agents and those with early termination options. Here are a few of the big names, and the ones that involve the Rockets. Some of those moves make sense to me, but some seem a little far-fetched.
- Jason Kidd to Lakers: This move seems viable, considering how well Kidd played down the stretch. Fisher showed that he is inconsistent now, and Jordan Farmar is best suited coming off the bench. The only concern would be that money might go to resign Odom, although allowing him to walk now, with a healthy Bynum, Gasol, and Ariza would not be the end of the world.
- Ben Gordon to Utah: While on paper, his offense would boost the Jazz into Finals contender, his defense and attitude might not fly in Utah. Jerry Sloan gets guys he wants, and I am not sure he is a fit with the coach. If it did work, moving Brewer to the bench and bringing him in would give them a sorely needed scorer with a lockdown defender on the bench.
- Allen Iverson to Dallas: Interesting situation because Iverson has shown he cannot play at a high level. Detroit made one of the worst trades in recent memory by giving up Billups for Iverson. Billups might not be "Mr. Big Shot" anymore, but he brought that team together and to the conference finals. Dallas might take a flyer on AI if they lose Kidd, if for nothing else than the added publicity that Cuban craves.
- Ron Artest to Toronto: I think this is a possibility, but a remote one at best. Ron is getting old enough that he is ready to win something. Therefore, I expect him signing a lower money deal (mid-level exception) to play for a contender. I can actually see him resigning in Houston after the way they played in the postseason.
- Lamar Odom to Detroit: This is a risk for Detroit because Odom has shown a propensity NOT to be a huge player when counted on. Look at his time in Miami or the other LA jersey when he could not take charge and carry the team. Odom is best as a third option, creating matchup problems for opponents. In Detroit, he would fill Rasheed's shoes, playing as a small PF. But outside of Hamilton, he would have to score points. A bad combo. If he is smart, he resigns with LA or a similar contender, perhaps even a trip back to South Beach...
- Andre Miller to Portland: If this happens, the Blazers get a boost in experience a play from probably the only position they were considered weak at. Steve Blake is solid, but he is not Andre Miller. With Roy, Aldridge, Oden, and the other great young guys they have, this signing could bring it together. That said, I don't see the Blazers scrapping the rebuild they have started. Decisions such as this have plagued them in the past. Look for them to spend wisely, waiting to see how the talent develops one more year before jumping into the free agent deep end.
- Shawn Marion to Chicago: Another intriguing option, but I don't see it materializing. The Bulls are known to be slashing some payroll, but I don't think a reduced-price Marion will fit the bill. His athletic ability would be a better fit elsewhere, where the pace is up tempo. Perhaps a reunion in New York with his old boss is in order, especially since the Knicks are looking at a bleak shot at getting LeBron and keeping any players around him.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
MLB Draft
The MLB Amateur Draft wraps up today. The MLB Draft is different from any other major sport for one reason. In the NFL or NBA, a first rounder, second rounder, or, in the NFL, even a third rounder will start immediately and have an impact on your team. Moreover, the players getting drafted have been seen by fans on Saturdays or playing in March Madness. In baseball, nethier is true. Many are straight out of high school, and college baseball is not nearly as mainstream for everyday fans. Therefore, MLB drafts take some years to sort out and see how the picks perform.
One thing that annoys me is the everyday fan that thinks NFL when looking at a MLB draft. For instance, fans here in Houston were up in arms when a shortstop was selected in the first round. Pitching is an obvious need, but no one outside of perhaps Strasburg will be pitching in the MLB this year. In the long run, drafting for need will get you in trouble. You MUST draft best available player because, as fans must understand, prospects are called "prospects" for a reason. You can never be sure!
Players that appear to have the best future could turn out to be a bust. Even Jiovanni Meir, the new shortstop, could become the next Miguel Tejada, a serviceable player like Julio Lugo, or a flame out that never gets out of the minors. Very few players are "can't-miss" picks. And once you get out of the top 10, it gets even more hit or miss.
For instance, look at the 2004 draft. Players are 5 years removed from selection, and those that are going to be big leaguers are already there. Others may be journeymen, or bench players, but they have already shown their ceiling.
Pick 1. Matt Bush (Padres): made it to A ball, where he batted .219 in 3 seasons; traded after another off-field incident where he threw a high school lacrosse player "defending" his high school as "Matt [expletive] Bush!"
Pick 2. Justin Verlander (Tigers): debuted in July 2005; 53 wins and All-Star in 2007
Pick 3. Philip Humber (Mets): 25 MLB innings in 4 seasons; 22-20 in AAA for last two and a half seasons
Pick 4. Jeff Niemann (Rays): second ML season (7-6); 21-11 in two AAA seasons
Pick 5. Mark Rogers (Brewers): high A ball in two season; out for two years with shoulder surgeries
Missed opportunities for these teams included SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), Jered Weaver (Angels), and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox). As you can see, even top picks are not immune from never reaching the hype.
The other opportunity to draft best available is that many times, these players don't play for your major league club but will help the club. When the Astros drafted John Halama, Freddy Garcia, and Carlos Guillen, they didn't expect to get Randy Johnson. But by moving those players, they made a trade to try to get to the World Series in 1998. And if the prospect is that good, then the veteran moves for a better piece. If Evan Longoria hadn't displace Ty Wigginton, he wouldn't have been available to trade for Dan Wheeler and Ben Zhobrist, both of which played roles in the World Series run.
One thing that annoys me is the everyday fan that thinks NFL when looking at a MLB draft. For instance, fans here in Houston were up in arms when a shortstop was selected in the first round. Pitching is an obvious need, but no one outside of perhaps Strasburg will be pitching in the MLB this year. In the long run, drafting for need will get you in trouble. You MUST draft best available player because, as fans must understand, prospects are called "prospects" for a reason. You can never be sure!
Players that appear to have the best future could turn out to be a bust. Even Jiovanni Meir, the new shortstop, could become the next Miguel Tejada, a serviceable player like Julio Lugo, or a flame out that never gets out of the minors. Very few players are "can't-miss" picks. And once you get out of the top 10, it gets even more hit or miss.
For instance, look at the 2004 draft. Players are 5 years removed from selection, and those that are going to be big leaguers are already there. Others may be journeymen, or bench players, but they have already shown their ceiling.
Pick 1. Matt Bush (Padres): made it to A ball, where he batted .219 in 3 seasons; traded after another off-field incident where he threw a high school lacrosse player "defending" his high school as "Matt [expletive] Bush!"
Pick 2. Justin Verlander (Tigers): debuted in July 2005; 53 wins and All-Star in 2007
Pick 3. Philip Humber (Mets): 25 MLB innings in 4 seasons; 22-20 in AAA for last two and a half seasons
Pick 4. Jeff Niemann (Rays): second ML season (7-6); 21-11 in two AAA seasons
Pick 5. Mark Rogers (Brewers): high A ball in two season; out for two years with shoulder surgeries
Missed opportunities for these teams included SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), Jered Weaver (Angels), and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox). As you can see, even top picks are not immune from never reaching the hype.
The other opportunity to draft best available is that many times, these players don't play for your major league club but will help the club. When the Astros drafted John Halama, Freddy Garcia, and Carlos Guillen, they didn't expect to get Randy Johnson. But by moving those players, they made a trade to try to get to the World Series in 1998. And if the prospect is that good, then the veteran moves for a better piece. If Evan Longoria hadn't displace Ty Wigginton, he wouldn't have been available to trade for Dan Wheeler and Ben Zhobrist, both of which played roles in the World Series run.
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