MLB Draft

The MLB Amateur Draft wraps up today. The MLB Draft is different from any other major sport for one reason. In the NFL or NBA, a first rounder, second rounder, or, in the NFL, even a third rounder will start immediately and have an impact on your team. Moreover, the players getting drafted have been seen by fans on Saturdays or playing in March Madness. In baseball, nethier is true. Many are straight out of high school, and college baseball is not nearly as mainstream for everyday fans. Therefore, MLB drafts take some years to sort out and see how the picks perform.

One thing that annoys me is the everyday fan that thinks NFL when looking at a MLB draft. For instance, fans here in Houston were up in arms when a shortstop was selected in the first round. Pitching is an obvious need, but no one outside of perhaps Strasburg will be pitching in the MLB this year. In the long run, drafting for need will get you in trouble. You MUST draft best available player because, as fans must understand, prospects are called "prospects" for a reason. You can never be sure!

Players that appear to have the best future could turn out to be a bust. Even Jiovanni Meir, the new shortstop, could become the next Miguel Tejada, a serviceable player like Julio Lugo, or a flame out that never gets out of the minors. Very few players are "can't-miss" picks. And once you get out of the top 10, it gets even more hit or miss.

For instance, look at the 2004 draft. Players are 5 years removed from selection, and those that are going to be big leaguers are already there. Others may be journeymen, or bench players, but they have already shown their ceiling.

Pick 1. Matt Bush (Padres): made it to A ball, where he batted .219 in 3 seasons; traded after another off-field incident where he threw a high school lacrosse player "defending" his high school as "Matt [expletive] Bush!"

Pick 2. Justin Verlander (Tigers): debuted in July 2005; 53 wins and All-Star in 2007

Pick 3. Philip Humber (Mets): 25 MLB innings in 4 seasons; 22-20 in AAA for last two and a half seasons

Pick 4. Jeff Niemann (Rays): second ML season (7-6); 21-11 in two AAA seasons

Pick 5. Mark Rogers (Brewers): high A ball in two season; out for two years with shoulder surgeries

Missed opportunities for these teams included SS Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks), Jered Weaver (Angels), and Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox). As you can see, even top picks are not immune from never reaching the hype.

The other opportunity to draft best available is that many times, these players don't play for your major league club but will help the club. When the Astros drafted John Halama, Freddy Garcia, and Carlos Guillen, they didn't expect to get Randy Johnson. But by moving those players, they made a trade to try to get to the World Series in 1998. And if the prospect is that good, then the veteran moves for a better piece. If Evan Longoria hadn't displace Ty Wigginton, he wouldn't have been available to trade for Dan Wheeler and Ben Zhobrist, both of which played roles in the World Series run.