Frankly, it is beginning to get old. Steroids pop up in most conversations these days surrounding baseball. Players vehemently deny their use, only to turn up on reports of positive tests or, worse yet, testing positive today. But is there any benefit to discussing this day in and day out, trying to determine who is guilty and who isn't?
In the long run, I think this entire era of baseball, from the mid-1990's to now, will be marred by the scandalous accusations swirling around about the use of performance enhancers. To be truthful, many of these are available over the counter, and only became banned recently (such as Andro). Others, though, have been taking anabolic steroids and human growth hormone (HGH), breaking the law while doing so without prescription.
Will we ever determine who really took these enhancers? Show me one player that will admit to using them, and I can show you ten that will deny it completely. The most recent public involvement involved two players that were freinds on the Boston Red Sox, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Ramirez, actually returning from a suspension received for testing positive for a PED to cure other "performance" issues, was found to be on the now-infamous 2003 positive results list. Ortiz was on the same list.
Ramirez's career has an intriguing twist to it. His frist three seasons in Cleveland, he averaged 30 home runs; not a bad number, but not a prolific home run hitter. Then he doesn't hit less that 33 for the next nine years, with years of 45 twice, 44, 43, and 41 among others. Critics may point to his combined 37 home runs last year, after the extensive testing was implemented in 2007 (when he hit 20 home runs in 130 games). But he failed a test in 2009! He was still doing some form of PED, hoping to get past the testing.
Ortiz has an even more meteoric rise. For instance, compare his final season in Minnesota (2002) with his first season in Boston (2003):
412 AB, .272/.339/.500, 20 HR, 52 runs, 75 RBI
448 AB, .288/.369/.592, 31 HR, 79 runs, 101 RBI
The teams are different, and the players provided different hitting scenarios, but his numbers greatly increased. In fact, the Twins released Ortiz because his defense at first was downright bad, and hios hitting did not make him a great DH candidate. Suddenly, he goes to Boston, and increases his output each season, going from 31 to 41 to 47 to 54 home runs in four seasons. It just so happens, he tested positive for PEDs in 2003, his first season in Boston. In 2007, when testing was being thrown around, his power numbers dropped to 35 home runs, with a "poor" 23 home runs in an injury-shortened 2008. Injury-shortened from lack of steroids to promote healing and recovery? We'll never know...
Why will we not know? Because, like Alex Rodriguez before him, he did not pay attention to what he was taking, and can't tell if it would cause him to test positive or not. But he did not take steroids! Can we believe that? Rafael Palmiero lied to Congress, knowing he had failed a test, only to get punished for it later. Roger Clemens claimed people "misremembered." Mark McGuire wanted to sign more autographs and talk about the future, not the past. Sammy Sosa forgot English. More and more we can expect these names to leak out, and players to do the same old song and dance about not knowing what they were taking, but it was not steroids. Who are we to believe? The answer is no one, and that is why this entire era of players will be forever plagued as the Steroid Era.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Thursday, August 6, 2009
August 6: NFL Quarterbacks
On the back of hearing Eli Manning just became the highest paid player in the NFL, I started thinking about the other guys he has to compete with every week in the league. As the highest paid player, is he the best player? Is he even the best quarterback? I formulated my own list of the Top 10 NFL QBs, just to see where he stacked up.
- Peyton Manning (Colts): Eli's older brother has been and will be for some time, the most accurate and mentally-strong quarterback in the league. If I had to pick a quarterback to start a team now, I would pick the 33 year old, just to let the rookie that is behind him watch and learn. He can manage a team on the field and knows everyone's role. This knowledge helps him connect with his receivers, at a click of 64.4% of the time for his career, the best in the NFL. He came in as one of the best, and he still is one of the best.
- Tom Brady (Patriots): Despite coming off of a knee injury, Brady slots in behind Peyton as the next best thing since, well, Peyton Manning. He has command of his offense as well as Manning. He can manage a game as well, too. In fact, it comes down to choice #1 and #1A. But Manning gets the nod because of his accuracy, where Brady is a "lousy" 63%.
- Drew Brees (Saints): A gunslinger right out of the old run-and-shoot styles, Brees will throw the ball almost anywhere at any time. This ability caused San Diego to hold on to him that much longer when they had Philip Rivers sitting on the bench behind him. Last year, Brees threw for an astonishing 5,069 yards, the most in Saints history.
- Philip Rivers (Chargers): Brees' replacement in San Diego has done everything but get the elusive Super Bowl Ring. Lead his team to the playoffs for three straight years? Check. Lead the league in passer rating? Check. Gain the respect of teammates by playing hurt? Check. Now all he needs to is get the remaining hardware.
- Eli Manning (Giants): The highest paid player is only the fifth best QB? That is right my friends. While he has the ring, Manning is not a player that can carry a team when it is necessary. He is a very good player, and works well in the Giants offensive scheme. But he is not able to throw for 50 times in a game and carry his team to the victory consistently.
- Donovan McNabb (Eagles): McNabb has been on a roller coaster of a career, but he has been able to hang in there through all of it and make himself into a good QB. His weapons have always been suspect, with the exception of Brian Westbrook, and yet he still puts the Eagles in a position to win.
- Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): Two rings helps his argument, but like Manning, Big Ben can't grab the ball and sling it around the field and lead his team to victory consistently. The power running game turns Ben from a hurler to a manager, and he plays that role VERY well.
- Tony Romo (Cowboys): If he can ever get the playoff monkey off his back, he might climb the list. But leading a team to 12, 13 or 14 wins means nothing when you lose the first time out. Romo is more of a risk taker, but he has the mental acumen to still maintain his composure to run the team.
- Carson Palmer (Bengals): Injuries make this a tough pick, but when he is healthy, Palmer has top 5 potential. With a solid receiving corp, Palmer has been the carrying force for the Bengals for the last four years and he is poised to return with a new elbow from Tommy John surgery.
- Kurt Warner (Cardinals): A Super Bowl run will definitely rejuvenate a career, but Warner should be on the list based on his home run potential. As the prize member of the "Greatest Show on Turf" in St. Louis, we all know Warner could throw. Pair him with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, and it was a lethal team.
Just missing the cut: Matt, Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Pennington
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
August 4: Interesting Trend
I was reading some articles on Baseball Prospectus yesterday and watching baseball on TV when something hit me. Actually, it occurred after reading the article and seeing Rick Ankiel's name scroll along the Bottom Line. I don't recall having ever heard about or seen so many pitchers make the jump from the mound to the field successfully.
Recently, there have been a select few that have resurrected their careers by trading in the mound for the field. The most notable is Rick Ankiel, the stud pitcher turned centerfielder for the Cardinals. Ankiel went 11-7 for the 2000 Cardinals before completely coming undone in the postseason, throwing five wild pitches in an inning in Game 1 of the NLDS. He never regained his form, and by 2002 was out of the majors because of injuries and control issues. In 2004, he switched to the outfield and after overcoming more injuries, became a full-time outfielder in St. Louis in August 2007. This is amazing! These players have honed their skills since they were five years old, but he was able to switch mid-career and make it work.
In the Baseball Prospectus article I read, the top of the futures list was Scott Beerer. As an Aggie, I loved him playing third and outfield while closing for the Aggies. But the Rockies drafted him and made him a reliever. After some injuries, he never regained his form. He asked for a position move, the Rockies declined, and Beerer retired. For two years, he practiced and was able to return this year as an outfielder, where he has mashed his way through low-A and high-A.
The Astros have a similar story with Brian Bogusevic, the first round pick out of Tulane in 2005. His best run (9-7 at high-A) came as a 22 year old, having already shed the "prospect" label. But after 2008, he switched back to the outfield where he had played at Tulane. At AAA this year, for the first time at that level pitching or fielding, he has an OBP of .346 and is slugging .723. Not bad for a struggling pitcher...
This phenomenon is not a new idea. Pitchers have been found from position players in the past. In fact, the Astros Chris Sampson (shortstop) and Brandon Backe (utility) were position players before finding their calling. But what is causing the swing the other direction with such success?
Part of that can be answered by the fact that these are top-notch athletes. Gone are the days of boozing and carousing in the offseason. Now, that only happens at night, as players workout year round for the season's wear and tear. Therefore, these players have elevated themselves over others at every step, from high school to college to MLB. Moving from one facet to the other only requires a modified skill set, one that most of us have but can't do at that level. But an athlete that has been playing his entire life can make that switch, and have a very good chance of being successful at it.
Another reason for this increase might be the fact that some of the previous players to switch did so early on in their careers, before they were "known" as pitchers. Factor in the technology and reporting boom, and players that switched in A-ball without so much as a murmur are now reported to the fans. It can be found on statistical websites, team sites, and even fan sites.
Finally, I think another reason is that teams are trying to find and develop quality pitching. In college, it is not uncommon for a position player to double as a relief pitcher, or start one of the games on the weekend. Having watched the Aggies and opponents when I was in college, I saw this occur on many occasions. But in MLB, the old mantra of "pitching wins championships" has caused teams to draft these two-way players and declare them pitchers. Teams hope quantity will create quality, as a percentage of these pitchers will develop into major league talent. Other times, the player demands to become a pitcher because of the future returns. By that, I mean the chances of pitching under the big lights are better than catching a fly under them. On major league rosters, there are generally 11 or so pitchers versus one or two players at the other positions. Doing the math, that means there are roughly 330 pitchers and, at the most, 60 or so position players for every other position. I'd like my odds as a pitcher, too.
This "pigeon-holing" of combo players has created a glut of pitching in the minors. A majority of these pitchers will never pan out and retire as minor leaguers. Others will get the chance to live their dreams, only from a different view on the field.
Recently, there have been a select few that have resurrected their careers by trading in the mound for the field. The most notable is Rick Ankiel, the stud pitcher turned centerfielder for the Cardinals. Ankiel went 11-7 for the 2000 Cardinals before completely coming undone in the postseason, throwing five wild pitches in an inning in Game 1 of the NLDS. He never regained his form, and by 2002 was out of the majors because of injuries and control issues. In 2004, he switched to the outfield and after overcoming more injuries, became a full-time outfielder in St. Louis in August 2007. This is amazing! These players have honed their skills since they were five years old, but he was able to switch mid-career and make it work.
In the Baseball Prospectus article I read, the top of the futures list was Scott Beerer. As an Aggie, I loved him playing third and outfield while closing for the Aggies. But the Rockies drafted him and made him a reliever. After some injuries, he never regained his form. He asked for a position move, the Rockies declined, and Beerer retired. For two years, he practiced and was able to return this year as an outfielder, where he has mashed his way through low-A and high-A.
The Astros have a similar story with Brian Bogusevic, the first round pick out of Tulane in 2005. His best run (9-7 at high-A) came as a 22 year old, having already shed the "prospect" label. But after 2008, he switched back to the outfield where he had played at Tulane. At AAA this year, for the first time at that level pitching or fielding, he has an OBP of .346 and is slugging .723. Not bad for a struggling pitcher...
This phenomenon is not a new idea. Pitchers have been found from position players in the past. In fact, the Astros Chris Sampson (shortstop) and Brandon Backe (utility) were position players before finding their calling. But what is causing the swing the other direction with such success?
Part of that can be answered by the fact that these are top-notch athletes. Gone are the days of boozing and carousing in the offseason. Now, that only happens at night, as players workout year round for the season's wear and tear. Therefore, these players have elevated themselves over others at every step, from high school to college to MLB. Moving from one facet to the other only requires a modified skill set, one that most of us have but can't do at that level. But an athlete that has been playing his entire life can make that switch, and have a very good chance of being successful at it.
Another reason for this increase might be the fact that some of the previous players to switch did so early on in their careers, before they were "known" as pitchers. Factor in the technology and reporting boom, and players that switched in A-ball without so much as a murmur are now reported to the fans. It can be found on statistical websites, team sites, and even fan sites.
Finally, I think another reason is that teams are trying to find and develop quality pitching. In college, it is not uncommon for a position player to double as a relief pitcher, or start one of the games on the weekend. Having watched the Aggies and opponents when I was in college, I saw this occur on many occasions. But in MLB, the old mantra of "pitching wins championships" has caused teams to draft these two-way players and declare them pitchers. Teams hope quantity will create quality, as a percentage of these pitchers will develop into major league talent. Other times, the player demands to become a pitcher because of the future returns. By that, I mean the chances of pitching under the big lights are better than catching a fly under them. On major league rosters, there are generally 11 or so pitchers versus one or two players at the other positions. Doing the math, that means there are roughly 330 pitchers and, at the most, 60 or so position players for every other position. I'd like my odds as a pitcher, too.
This "pigeon-holing" of combo players has created a glut of pitching in the minors. A majority of these pitchers will never pan out and retire as minor leaguers. Others will get the chance to live their dreams, only from a different view on the field.
Monday, August 3, 2009
August 3: Hometown Rant
This may be completely unorganized, and there is a chance I may repeat myself more than once. But I was not a happy camper when I returned from vacation, only to find that the Astros couldn't decide if they were buyers or sellers, so they decided to sit pat. The relaxing vacation waves rolled off, and in crept the "I can't believe it!" waves that have accompanied so many Astros seasons in the past.
Now, I don't like to point fingers, but part of this is from the top. Drayton has done a great job with this club, having spent money when he had it (Carlos Lee), even if it might have been too much for too long. But he continually tightens up the purse strings, looking solely at the bottom line. From a business man perspective, this is smart. Attendance is down, the payroll should be too. But people don't buy baseball teams to make money. It is one of the reasons I think Mark Cuban, whom I loathe in the NBA, would be a great idea for baseball. He'd pay to get a winning team, regardless of the bottom line. He'd do it in the NBA too if it weren't for that pesky salary cap.
If Drayton didn't want to pay anymore, then lets get something in return for Tejada, Hawkins, or Blum. These guys aren't the future of any club, but they are a good piece for a contender, something the Astros are not. If they were going to make a run, open up the wallet and get some guys. We didn't have to pieces to make a deal for a front line starter, but there were serviceable arms not named Russ Ortiz out there somewhere. (In a related note, there now is an arm out there named Russ Ortiz. Anyone calling?) Either way, the Astros needed to decide if this is a win now team, with aging and declining stars (Tejada, Rodriguez, Berkman, Lee, Oswalt), or a tear down and rebuild project for the next few years. We opted for the sit on your thumbs approach.
Granted, a lot can happen between now and the waiver deadline, especially with little blocking expected because of a down economy and low profit year. Therefore, expect no Randy Myers incidents this year. (For those that don't know, the Padres claimed Myers and his $6+ million salary to prevent the Braves from getting him, fully expecting the Blue Jays to take him off waivers. Instead, the Padres ate two more years at that rate, with Myers never pitching in the big leagues again.) That means we might see Tejada and some other parts moved between now and August 31.
That does not address the fact that the Astros needed to do something. As I said before, they can't win with this team. And the future is even worse with a barren farm system coming through. The only bright spots are catcher Jason Castro (thank you!!!) and outfielder Brian Bogusevic, who is blocked by Lee, Pence, and Bourn. Showing one of the bullpen arms to the door would have added at least a couple B level prospects. And getting rid of Blum, a good bench player for a contender because of his versatility and bat, would have yielded a similar catch. Instead, we are going to buy into the Astros "We can win!!!" belief for one more year, sit back, and drink our Kool-Aid like men. Here's to 2010!!!
Now, I don't like to point fingers, but part of this is from the top. Drayton has done a great job with this club, having spent money when he had it (Carlos Lee), even if it might have been too much for too long. But he continually tightens up the purse strings, looking solely at the bottom line. From a business man perspective, this is smart. Attendance is down, the payroll should be too. But people don't buy baseball teams to make money. It is one of the reasons I think Mark Cuban, whom I loathe in the NBA, would be a great idea for baseball. He'd pay to get a winning team, regardless of the bottom line. He'd do it in the NBA too if it weren't for that pesky salary cap.
If Drayton didn't want to pay anymore, then lets get something in return for Tejada, Hawkins, or Blum. These guys aren't the future of any club, but they are a good piece for a contender, something the Astros are not. If they were going to make a run, open up the wallet and get some guys. We didn't have to pieces to make a deal for a front line starter, but there were serviceable arms not named Russ Ortiz out there somewhere. (In a related note, there now is an arm out there named Russ Ortiz. Anyone calling?) Either way, the Astros needed to decide if this is a win now team, with aging and declining stars (Tejada, Rodriguez, Berkman, Lee, Oswalt), or a tear down and rebuild project for the next few years. We opted for the sit on your thumbs approach.
Granted, a lot can happen between now and the waiver deadline, especially with little blocking expected because of a down economy and low profit year. Therefore, expect no Randy Myers incidents this year. (For those that don't know, the Padres claimed Myers and his $6+ million salary to prevent the Braves from getting him, fully expecting the Blue Jays to take him off waivers. Instead, the Padres ate two more years at that rate, with Myers never pitching in the big leagues again.) That means we might see Tejada and some other parts moved between now and August 31.
That does not address the fact that the Astros needed to do something. As I said before, they can't win with this team. And the future is even worse with a barren farm system coming through. The only bright spots are catcher Jason Castro (thank you!!!) and outfielder Brian Bogusevic, who is blocked by Lee, Pence, and Bourn. Showing one of the bullpen arms to the door would have added at least a couple B level prospects. And getting rid of Blum, a good bench player for a contender because of his versatility and bat, would have yielded a similar catch. Instead, we are going to buy into the Astros "We can win!!!" belief for one more year, sit back, and drink our Kool-Aid like men. Here's to 2010!!!
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